Will there be a Regional War involving 3 or more countries in South America by the end of 2030?
GeopolíticaOne-Off4a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 71%
Previsores
7
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 16 horas
Desatualizado30/11/23, 02:39 UTC31/12/30, 22:59 UTC
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Regional war = a war involving more than 3 states in the same region (South America), waged by national or coalition armed forces in the course of which the sides are pursuing important territorial, economic, military or other objectives.
- Conflicts causing at least 1,000 deaths in one calendar year are considered wars by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program.
- This is the threshold I will also be using for this market.
- I will by using ACLED and UCDP data - any of those two trackers crossing the 1,000 death mark will trigger a YES resolution.
