Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 84.2%Líder entre 4 opções
Não 84.2%Previsores
16
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado5/03/26, 21:35 UTC30/12/26, 23:00 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if a ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is formally announced and takes effect by December 31, 2026.
- This includes any agreement that halts active hostilities, whether temporary or permanent, and regardless of whether it involves territorial concessions or security guarantees.
- The market resolves NO if active fighting continues through the end of 2026 without a formal ceasefire or peace agreement taking effect.
- For verification, resolution will be based on official announcements from the Ukrainian government, Russian government, or major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.).
- Russia launched a nearly 4-year-old invasion of Ukraine, with Russia currently occupying 20 percent of Ukraine's territory.