Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 82.1%Líder entre 4 opções
Previsores
14
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado5/03/26, 21:35 UTC30/12/26, 23:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the war in Ukraine end before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Putin still be Russia's President when the war in Ukraine ends?
Manifold MarketsWill my Ukrainian friend die in the war in Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRegras
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if a ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is formally announced and takes effect by December 31, 2026.
- This includes any agreement that halts active hostilities, whether temporary or permanent, and regardless of whether it involves territorial concessions or security guarantees.
- The market resolves NO if active fighting continues through the end of 2026 without a formal ceasefire or peace agreement taking effect.
- For verification, resolution will be based on official announcements from the Ukrainian government, Russian government, or major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.).
- Russia launched a nearly 4-year-old invasion of Ukraine, with Russia currently occupying 20 percent of Ukraine's territory.
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 22,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 581,3 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- € 55,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 96,8 mil
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the war in Ukraine end by the end of 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 82% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the war in Ukraine end by the end of 2026? é resolvido?
- Will the war in Ukraine end by the end of 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 30 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will the war in Ukraine end by the end of 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria