Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"?
RegulamentaçãoOne-OffIA3aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 64.9%
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13
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado1/07/26, 00:38 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC
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A new unique model so not opus, sonnet, haiku, fable etc
- Resolution criteria
- Target Model: This market resolves based on the first brand-new, uniquely named Claude model tier or family released by Anthropic after July 1, 2026.
- To qualify, the model must use a completely new class/tier name (e.g., if Anthropic releases "Claude 6 Sonnet" or "Fable 6", it does not count).
- It must not belong to the Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos families.
- Definition of "Banned": The model will resolve YES if, within 90 days of its official public release (via API or web interface), any of the following occur:
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- Before Oct 1, 2027-14.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-15.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
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- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
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- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
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- $1.25T–$1.5T20%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.1%
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- Volume total
- € 96,6 mil
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 65% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"? é resolvido?
- Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2029.
- Como Will the next new unique Anthropic Claude Model get temporarily or permanently "banned"? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: A new unique model so not opus, sonnet, haiku, fable etc