Will the most capable, public multimodal model at the end of 2027 in my judgement use a transformer-like architecture?
One-OffIATecnologia1aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 19 de out. de 2026, 19:50 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualSim 63%
Previsores
10
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado17/11/23, 09:50 UTC1/01/28, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the first robotic AGI be developed using a transformer-like architecture?
Manifold MarketsWill Luigi get away with killing the CEO by a jury nullification by my judgement?
Manifold MarketsWhich of Anthropic and OpenAI will get more credit for the Navier-Stokes solution, in my judgement?
Manifold MarketsWill Xi Jinping's succession be a nonviolent transition of power by my judgement?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegras
This question will resolve positively if the multimodal ML model that I personally think is most capable at the end of 2027 — as indicated by benchmark performance, personal experience, and task generality — uses a transformer-like architecture.
- The model must be publicly available, and is chosen according to my sole judgement.
- The model must at its core utilize an architecture that meets the following requirements, including any combination of the modifications and alterations listed:
- Core architecture components: The architecture must consist of an encoder, or a decoder, or both, with multi-head self-attention mechanisms, position-wise feed-forward networks, and positional encoding.
- Self-attention mechanism: The architecture must use a self-attention mechanism or a close approximation thereof.
- This includes: