Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 95.8%
Previsores
47
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado4/08/24, 09:49 UTC2/01/27, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
PolymarketWill US withdraw from NATO by which date?
PolymarketWill Israel withdraw from the buffer zone with Syria by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsForeign intervention in Gaza by which date?
PolymarketWill Gaza be in the news in 2026 [Google trends]?
Manifold MarketsRegras
Will the IDF fully withdraw all troops from Gaza at any point between now and the end of 2026? If the IDF withdraws and then re-enters, this will still resolve Yes.
- If any IDF presence remains, it will not be considered a full withdrawal.
- IDF troop presence within a buffer zone inside Gaza would still count as IDF presence in Gaza.
- I will not bet on this market.
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 22,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 470,8 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- € 35,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 100,1 mil
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 mais resultados
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 96% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026? é resolvido?
- Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will the IDF fully withdraw from Gaza by EOY 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Will the IDF fully withdraw all troops from Gaza at any point between now and the end of 2026? If the IDF withdraws and then re-enters, this will still resolve Yes.