Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?
GeopolíticaOne-OffRússia / Ucrânia14a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 60.7%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado15/09/23, 17:42 UTC31/12/40, 22:59 UTC
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Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time as a result of military action, before the conflict concludes with a peace deal or long-term armistice? This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects.
- Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol.
- Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains).
- This explicitly excludes any negotiated or otherwise unforced territorial changes (e.g. if Russia voluntarily withdraws from Ukrainian territory).
- The resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases.
- UPD: For more on resolution criteria, see my comment on why I resolved the 2024 market as "no".
