Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 66.4%
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Atualizado há 12 minutos
8/04/25, 19:41 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
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Prediction #1 from:
- My Takeaways From AI 2027 - by Scott Alexander
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume total
- € 241,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 128 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
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KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 349,4 mil
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the first major AI scare come from hacking? (ACX, AI 2027 Prediction #1)?
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 66% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the first major AI scare come from hacking? (ACX, AI 2027 Prediction #1) é resolvido?
- Will the first major AI scare come from hacking? (ACX, AI 2027 Prediction #1) deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2030.
- Como Will the first major AI scare come from hacking? (ACX, AI 2027 Prediction #1) é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Prediction #1 from: