Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 76%
Previsores
11
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado7/06/26, 22:00 UTC31/08/28, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?
PolymarketDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket2028 Democratic presidential nominee
Kalshi2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee
Robinhood (Rothera)Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Manifold MarketsAge of 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee?
PolymarketRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the official Democratic nominee for President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election is a woman.
- It will resolve to NO if the nominee is a man or does not identify as a woman.
- Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by the official nomination at the 2028 Democratic National Convention (scheduled for August 7–10, 2028) or the official nominee certified by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) if the selection is conducted via an alternative official process (e.g., a virtual roll call).
- Gender Identity: The gender of the nominee will be determined by their public self-identification at the time of nomination.
- Edge Cases: If a candidate is officially nominated but subsequently withdraws, dies, or is replaced after the formal conclusion of the nominating convention or official selection process, the market will still resolve based on the identity of the person who originally accepted the nomination.
Comparação de fontes de previsão
Mercados abertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.5pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,1 bi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,8 mi
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+44.0pt57.4%
- Nicolás Maduro-40.9pt41.6%
- No Head of State-0.1pt1%
+13 mais resultados
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 615,5 mi
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff+1.0pt17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt16.8%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.7%
+45 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep-1.0pt58.6%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30.3%
- Republicans sweep-0.2pt10.1%
+1 mais resultados
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 mais resultados
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- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 76% em 20 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? é resolvido?
- Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de agosto de 2028.
- Como Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria
- Onde mais Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman? está listado?
- A mesma pergunta também está listada em PredictIt, Polymarket.