Will the 2025-26 US flu season be classified as "high severity" by the CDC?
EconomiaOne-OffSaúde e medicina2m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 98.7%
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Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado11/12/25, 10:03 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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The 2025-26 flu season has started unusually early, driven by the H3N2 subclade K strain that emerged in summer 2025 after the season's vaccine composition was already finalized.
- This mutated strain has caused significant outbreaks in Japan, the UK, and Canada, with health officials warning it could produce the worst flu season in over a decade.
- The CDC classifies flu season severity using its Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) and tracks cumulative hospitalization rates through the FluSurv-NET surveillance system.
- A "high severity" classification is typically assigned when cumulative hospitalization rates significantly exceed historical baselines and meet specific threshold criteria.
- Resolution criteria: This market resolves YES if the CDC officially classifies the 2025-26 influenza season as "high severity" in any official report, press release, or surveillance summary published by June 1, 2026.
- Resolves NO if the season is classified as "low" or "moderate" severity, or if no official severity classification is issued by the resolution date.
