Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 17:20 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 83.6%
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12
Tipo de pergunta
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Atualizado há 25 minutos
3/07/26, 17:18 UTC3/07/27, 17:15 UTC
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- Resolves YES if any of the following occur:
- Russian or Belarussian soldiers cross into Polish territory without explicit Polish permission
- Critical Polish infrastructure is targeted in a kinetic attack with Russian or Belarussian missiles or drones
- A "simulated air strike" from Russia or Belarus in which Poland activates its air defenses
- Resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting.