Will real median income for family households in the US be higher in 2028 than in 2024?
InflaçãoOne-OffMacro e economia2a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 64.6%
Sim 64.6%Previsores
5
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado14/11/24, 02:58 UTC21/09/29, 06:59 UTC
Tendências
Ativos Sensíveis ao Macro
Regras
The US Census Bureau publishes a yearly report about income levels in the United States (in recent years titled "Income in the United States", see https://www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/income.html), usually published in mid-September of the following year.
- This market will resolve "Yes" if the value for real median income for family households during 2028 is higher than the value for 2024 and "No" if the value is lower or equal.
- This market will be resolved when the report for 2028 is published, probably between 9/10/2029 and 9/13/2029.
- If the data for 2024 have been revised since their initial release, this market will resolve based on the most recent data available at the time of resolution.
- If the name of the report changes, as long as it's clear which report measures this figure, this market will resolve in the obvious way.
- If report frequency changes, as long as a report is published about income in 2028, this market will resolve based on the most recent report about 2028 published as of 9/20/2029, or based on the first report about income in 2024 thereafter if the relevant report is published later (that is, if reports start to encompass 6-month periods instead of 1-year periods, and a report on the last 6 months of 2028 is available, this market will resolve based on that report.
