Will pro-Russian armed groups take control of a government building in any Baltic city or town by November 30, 2026?
One-OffRússia / UcrâniaGeopolíticaEuropa1mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 25 de out. de 2026, 20:28 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 91%
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Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado27/08/26, 06:15 UTC30/11/26, 22:00 UTC
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This market resolves YES if, at any time between market creation and the end of November 30, 2026 (EET, UTC+2), an organized pro-Russian armed group establishes de facto physical control over at least one government administration building in any city or town in Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania.
- It resolves NO otherwise.
- Qualifying buildings: Buildings used by a civilian national, regional, or municipal administration, such as a city/town hall or government administrative offices.
- Private offices, military facilities, and monuments do not count on their own.
- Physical control: The group must physically occupy the building and control access to it, excluding the lawful authorities from its normal use.
- A demonstration outside, flag-raising, threats, or an unsuccessful incursion does not count.