Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 88.8%
Previsores
7
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado16/05/25, 19:17 UTC30/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pope Leo XIV explicitly mentions Nick Bostrom in any official papal document, speech, or publication.
- The document has to be authored or signed off by the pope.
- The market will resolve to "No" if there is no such mention by the end of 2027.
- Reliable sources for verification include official Vatican publications: https://www.vatican.va https://press.vatican.va
- As an example of citation see the following text in which Pope Francis cites John McCarthy and Alan Turing.: https://www.vatican.va/roman_curia/congregations/cfaith/documents/rc_ddf_doc_20250128_antiqua-et-nova_en.html
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+8.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 267,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 95,6 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.3pt69.2%
- ChatGPT-1.1pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.3pt10.6%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 10,1 mi
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-5.0pt72%
- December 15,+4.5pt65%
- November 30,-7.0pt44%
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KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.65%+4.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.55%99%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 272 mil
- Volume 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+8.0pt99%
- Above 24%+6.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%99%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 211,1 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T-0.4pt25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.8%
+7 mais resultados
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 89% em 20 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028? é resolvido?
- Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028? deverá ser resolvido em 30 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria