Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 88.1%
Previsores
16
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado4/02/23, 00:20 UTC1/01/28, 07:59 UTC
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KalshiRegras
Nick Bostrom, director of the Future of Humanity Institute.
- This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
- The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
- To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
Mercados abertos
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- Philadelphia+2.0pt77.2%
- Tennessee-1.0pt22.8%
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- Chicago-4.0pt62.4%
- Minnesota+4.0pt37.6%
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- Volume 24h
- € 2,7 mi
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- Jacob Bridgeman+27.4pt32%
- Neal Shipley-18.0pt27%
- Ricky Castillo+12.0pt22%
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- Green Bay61.4%
- New York J38.6%
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- € 2,8 mi
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- € 2,4 mi
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Buffalo11%
- Los Angeles R9.3%
- Baltimore6.8%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 88% em 20 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? é resolvido?
- Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2028.
- Como Will Nick Bostrom create a market on Manifold by end of 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Nick Bostrom, director of the Future of Humanity Institute.