Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 86.1%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 8 minutos
8/09/26, 22:26 UTC30/09/26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegras
Any model counts.
- Image model, TTS model, a main-line GPT model, any model.
- Obviously, if they release weights with randomly initialized values that won't count but besides that, anything goes.
- Could be an open-weights model or a proprietary model or updates to model series (like GPT-6.1)
- The ChatGPT Image 2.5 model released today will not count
Mercados abertos
AI
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will OpenAI release a new model before October??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 86% em 21 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will OpenAI release a new model before October? é resolvido?
- Will OpenAI release a new model before October? deverá ser resolvido em 30 de setembro de 2026.
- Como Will OpenAI release a new model before October? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Any model counts.