Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 09:52 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 86.3%
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27
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 31 minutos
6/03/26, 04:46 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if S-7263 passes within 2026.
- Resolves YES if that bill is substantively included in another bill or package that passes this year as well, or if it’s resubmitted under a different number.
- Generally, I will attempt to resolve in the spirit of this question, not the explicit letter of these criteria.
- S-7263 is a bill seeking to regulate AIs giving medical/legal/professional advice, allowing people to sue chatbot owners who violate this ban.
- If S-7263 is substantially amended to the point that it is in my estimation no longer substantively similar to its current form (let’s say, 80% less potent or different from its current form) then this will resolve NO.
- In gray areas, I may resolve to PROB, judging from a consensus of credible reporting and feedback from other Manifold moderators.
