Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the United States pass federal legislation regulating AI in 2026??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 77.9% em 30 de outubro de 2026.

Will the United States pass federal legislation regulating AI in 2026?

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibrado

Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados

Dados de 30 de out. de 2026, 06:44 UTC · política pm-quality-4

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 77.9%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado ontem

Desatualizado

11/09/26, 10:20 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if a federal bill primarily regulating the development, deployment, safety, auditing, or licensing of artificial intelligence (AI) is signed into law by the President of the United States (or otherwise becomes federal law, such as through a veto override) between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
The market resolves to NO if no such federal legislation is enacted into law within this timeframe.
Source of truth: Enacted legislation must be verifiable on Congress.gov.
State-level laws (such as legislation passed in California, Colorado, or Illinois) do not qualify.
Broad, non-regulatory bills that merely establish advisory committees, fund research initiatives (e.g., the CREATE AI Act), or contain minor, non-binding AI provisions (such as standard defense authorization or spending bills) do not qualify.