Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Myanmar's civil war end before EOY 2027??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 75.4% em 26 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Will Myanmar's civil war end before EOY 2027? é resolvido?

Will Myanmar's civil war end before EOY 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.

A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados

Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 11:07 UTC · política pm-quality-4

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 75.4%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 6 horas

Desatualizado

10/08/26, 23:11 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, before December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC, the civil war in Myanmar is officially declared or widely recognized as ended.
The end of the conflict must satisfy at least one of the following conditions:
Comprehensive Peace Agreement: A formal, nationwide peace agreement, political settlement, or permanent ceasefire is signed between the central ruling authority of Myanmar (the military-led State Administration Council (SAC) or its successor) and the primary armed opposition groups (including the National Unity Government (NUG) and key coalitions like the Three Brotherhood Alliance or its constituent Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs)).
The agreement must be officially announced and remain actively in effect on December 31, 2027.
Localized, temporary, or fragmented bilateral truces do not qualify.