Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?
One-OffIARegulamentaçãoLatin AmericaRussia / UkraineChinaMiddle EastTrade PolicyUS Politics3mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 93.4%
Previsores
38
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado15/06/26, 14:03 UTC1/01/27, 11:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will an "export-control chip security" bill like the Chip Security Act become law in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAI models will be able to complete 20-hour software engineering tasks in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?
PolymarketUS x Cuba economic deal by which date?
PolymarketWhich countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
LimitlessRegras
The United States Government has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States.
- See https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access.
- The basic question I have is "Is something like this going to happen again this year?" There are other already-existing restrictions in place though, so here are more detailed resolution criteria:
- This market resolves YES if, at some point between now and the start of the new year, the US government takes a qualifying action (defined below) against any AI models belonging to a US company.
- The model must be a different model from Fable 5 or Mythos 5.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.
