Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?
IAOne-OffTecnologia3a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 80.5%
Sim 80.5%Previsores
40
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Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado26/01/24, 18:59 UTC2/02/30, 04:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if Meta deploys an LLM, whatever name it might have, that is at least as strong as its best other LLM, either as a ChatBot, API access or as clearly used in another consumer product offering, and within 30 days of that deployment it is not possible to download the model weights.
- Resolves to NO if Meta releases the model weights to a model it self-describes as AGI, or that clearly constitutes AGI as per OpenAI's definition as of 1 Jan 2024.
- Also resolves to NO if Meta fails to release what they claim to be substantially improved LLM for 36 consecutive months, or for 24 months after the market closes.
- Resolves to N/A on 1/1/35 if somehow none of the above criteria are met (to be safe).