Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNolan (2026) 97.6%
Previsores
29
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado23/07/26, 19:54 UTC31/12/27, 20:51 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Grok Imagine’s full-length Odyssey film be released this year?
KalshiWill Grok Imagine’s full-length Odyssey film be released this year? [Kalshi]
Manifold MarketsWill Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Christopher Nolan have a new film release in 2027 or 2028?
Manifold MarketsTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on which adaptation of Homer's The Odyssey is preferred by the Manifold community, subject to the following rules:
- Grok's Release Condition: Elon Musk pledged that the named outcome will produce a "full-length movie" of The Odyssey by the end of 2026.
- If a feature-length (at least 40 minutes long) adaptation of The Odyssey generated by the named outcome is not made publicly viewable on X or another platform by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT, this market will automatically resolve to Nolan (2026).
- Community Preference Poll: If the the named outcome adaptation is successfully released by the deadline, the creator will pin a poll in the comments of this market (or link to a dedicated Manifold poll) asking: "Which version of The Odyssey do you prefer: Christopher Nolan's (2026) or the named outcome's?"
- Voting & Final Resolution: The poll will run for 7 days.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 135,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 102,7 mil
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 325 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey??
- A Manifold Markets cota Nolan (2026) em 98% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey? é resolvido?
- Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria