Will Iran’s parliament hold a vote on initiating withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027?
One-OffGeopolíticaOriente MédioPolítica2m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 76.8%
Previsores
4
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado30/09/26, 08:04 UTC31/12/26, 11:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
Resolution criteria: This question resolves YES if the Iranian Parliament (Majlis) holds a formal vote to approve or reject Iran’s withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
- The measure does not need to pass; the question resolves YES once the qualifying vote has taken place, regardless of the outcome.
- The vote must be confirmed by an official Iranian parliamentary or government source, or by reliable reporting from major international news outlets.
- The parliamentary debate, committee consideration, or an announcement that a vote will be held does not qualify.
- On 21 August, hardline Iranian parliamentarian Qasem Ravanbakhsh says a proposal for Iran to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has been submitted to parliament and is being pursued, citing support from the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. [Iran International; Khabar Online]
- Throughout August, there has been a noticeable uptick in the number of Iranian parliamentarians and clerics discussing withdrawal from the NPT.
