Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 68.9%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 18 horas
Desatualizado4/05/26, 17:16 UTC31/03/28, 23:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
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ForecastExRegras
This market resolves YES if Indonesia's primary aluminum (smelter output) production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 - December 31, 2027) exceeds 1.5 million tonnes.
- Settlement is March 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~3 months past year-end so that the December 2027 ESDM monthly output print (which publishes with a ~1-2 month lag) is available before resolution.
- Indonesia is one step further down the supply chain from alumina: bauxite -> alumina -> primary aluminum.
- Domestic primary aluminum capacity comes mostly from Inalum's Kuala Tanjung smelter (~250-300 kt/yr) plus expansion projects under the post-2023 industrial-localisation push.
- Crossing 1.5 Mt for calendar 2027 would represent a meaningful ramp from the ~250 kt 2023 baseline and would suggest the bauxite-to-smelter strategy is producing real material rather than just intermediate alumina.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
