Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 93.1%
Previsores
4
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 45 minutos
Atrasado4/05/26, 17:15 UTC31/03/28, 23:59 UTC
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ForecastExRegras
This market resolves YES if China's alumina (Al2O3) production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 - December 31, 2027) exceeds 85 million tonnes.
- Settlement is March 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~3 months past year-end so that the December 2027 NBS monthly industrial output print (which publishes with a ~1-2 month lag) is available before resolution.
- China is the world's largest alumina producer, accounting for roughly 60% of global output.
- Annual production has run between 75-82 Mt over 2022-2024 and has tracked aluminium-smelter demand closely.
- Crossing 85 Mt for calendar 2027 would represent meaningful growth from current levels and require either capacity utilisation gains or additional refinery commissioning during 2026-2027.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
