Will "I think alignment work is more promising than..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffIA1aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 88.8%
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Desatualizado30/07/26, 17:27 UTC1/02/28, 00:00 UTC
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As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post I think alignment work is more promising than control work is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Mercados abertos
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
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- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
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- € 325 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will "I think alignment work is more promising than..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 89% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will "I think alignment work is more promising than..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? é resolvido?
- Will "I think alignment work is more promising than..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de fevereiro de 2028.
- Como Will "I think alignment work is more promising than..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.