Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 97.5%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado11/01/25, 21:41 UTC31/05/30, 06:59 UTC
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KalshiRegras
I’m a first year PhD student in Behavioral Marketing at UC Berkeley.
- This question resolves yes if+when I drop out, no if I finish my program (est.
- The main reason I would drop out is if something else seems clearly more impactful or interesting.
- Two things I could imagine fitting this description are working at an EA-aligned research org or doing more direct AI safety work.
- The main reason I wouldn’t drop out is that I’m getting a comfy stipend and have a ton of research flexibility.
- I’m currently running surveys on probabilistic reasoning and forecasting human-AI interaction.
Mercados abertos
AI
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
- Alibaba+2.0pt69%
- Moonshot-9.5pt14%
- Z.ai-2.3pt6%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 75,1 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 61,5 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.3pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+1.9pt15.5%
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- Moonshot-0.3pt9.7%
- Z.ai-3.4pt1.9%
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KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%98%
- Above 2.55%+18.0pt94%
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- € 61,1 mil
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%+4.0pt96%
- Above 4.5%+22.0pt43%
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POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 mais resultados
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will I drop out of my PhD program??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 98% em 17 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will I drop out of my PhD program? é resolvido?
- Will I drop out of my PhD program? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de maio de 2030.
- Como Will I drop out of my PhD program? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: I’m a first year PhD student in Behavioral Marketing at UC Berkeley.