Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 50.1%
Previsores
8
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado19/08/26, 14:07 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Gustavo Petro be convicted of a crime before January 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by which date?
PolymarketWill former Colombian president Gustavo Petro be formally charged with a criminal offense before January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Gustavo Petro face a criminal trial before January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsZhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
PolymarketLindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026?
PolymarketRegras
This is the strongest and most consequential market in the series.
- It asks whether Gustavo Petro will ultimately receive a prison sentence as a result of a criminal conviction before the beginning of 2028.
- A conviction alone would not be sufficient.
- The court must actually impose a sentence that includes imprisonment.
- Resolution criteria:
- YES: If a competent court sentences Gustavo Petro to a term of imprisonment before January 1, 2028.
Mercados abertos
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+4.5pt65%
- Yes-4.5pt35%
- Volume total
- € 347,5 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 27,4 mil
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026+0.1pt5%
- Volume total
- € 497,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 12,5 mil
POLYMARKETNothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Yes+2.0pt83.2%
- No-2.0pt16.8%
- Volume total
- € 676 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 8,2 mil
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volume total
- € 9,8 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 4,6 mil
KALSHIWill Trump be impeached and removed from office?
- No84%
- Yes-1.0pt16%
- Volume total
- € 577,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 3,7 mil
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30+1.5pt7%
+3 mais resultados
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- What will Brett Kavanaugh say during his Notre Dame Lecture?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
- Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Gustavo Petro be sentenced to prison before January 1, 2028??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 50% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Gustavo Petro be sentenced to prison before January 1, 2028? é resolvido?
- Will Gustavo Petro be sentenced to prison before January 1, 2028? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como Will Gustavo Petro be sentenced to prison before January 1, 2028? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This is the strongest and most consequential market in the series.