Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 70.9%
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Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 42 minutos
20/01/26, 22:37 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegras
Martin Kleppmann (author of Designing Data-Intensive Applications) argues that AI will bring formal verification into the software engineering mainstream.
- His thesis: LLMs are getting good at writing proof scripts, which could dramatically reduce the cost of formal verification—historically prohibitive (the seL4 microkernel required 20 person-years and 200,000 lines of Isabelle for 8,700 lines of C).
- Key formal verification languages include Lean, Coq/Rocq, Isabelle, Agda, F*, and Dafny.
- Currently, these are niche tools used primarily in academia and specialized industrial applications (cryptographic protocol stacks, verified compilers, microkernels).
- This market tests whether AI-driven improvements will translate to widespread adoption within ~5 years.
- Resolution Criteria:
