Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win any of these awards or prizes before 2040?
EntretenimentoOne-OffIAMúsicaTecnologia13aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 77.6%
Previsores
36
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 34 minutos
12/03/25, 07:22 UTC2/02/40, 13:29 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI to figure out why he was wrong?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI-generated song about Bitcoin reach 1M streams before 2027?
Manifold Markets[Add options] Which of these highly unlikely things will happen to me this century?
Manifold MarketsRegras
The Awards that could count for the purposes of this market are:
- Turing Award
- IEEE Richard W. Hamming Medal
- Millenium Technology Prize
- Nebula Award
- IEEE John von Neumann Medal
