Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 83.3%
Previsores
19
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado22/06/24, 04:49 UTC1/01/31, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States overtake China in PPP GDP by 2050?
Manifold MarketsState of the economy at the end of 2026
KalshiChina overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?
KalshiWill the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExRegras
Resolves to the exact same as the Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/chinausgdp/china-overtakes-us-gdp
- If China has overtaken US GDP by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome verified from IMF.
Mercados abertos
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 89,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,7 mi
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 541,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 30,7 mil
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 334,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 12,8 mil
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 10,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 10,7 mil
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume total
- € 612,5 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 6,9 mil
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume total
- € 2,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,3 mil
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 83% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030? é resolvido?
- Will China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2031.
- Como Will China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves to the exact same as the Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/chinausgdp/china-overtakes-us-gdp