Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 09:52 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 81%
Previsores
11
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado24/12/25, 07:08 UTC31/12/35, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?
PolymarketWill China have 4 aircraft carriers by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Navy commission more than three Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Navy commission more than five Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Navy commission more than four Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketRegras
https://x.com/RyanFedasiuk/status/2003634067997409613?s=20
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China launches nine or more aircraft carriers by December 31, 2035. "Launch" is defined as the vessel having its official launch ceremony, not the date of the dry dock flooding or when it is commissioned into service.
- Resolution will be verified through official Chinese state media announcements.
- As of 2025, China has three active aircraft carriers: the Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian.
- A fourth carrier, the Type 004, has been under construction since 2024 and is expected to feature nuclear propulsion.