Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualYes, by 2100 62.1%
Previsores
10
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado9/09/26, 12:27 UTC31/12/99, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2100, a major, reputable public polling or research organization (e.g., Pew Research Center, Gallup, or a comparable national statistical/census agency) publishes a survey indicating that 50% or more of surveyed adults in the United States (or a globally representative sample) use generative AI chatbots or LLM-based conversational assistants (e.g., ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, or their direct technological successors) on a daily basis (or "almost every day").
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO on January 1, 2100.
- Resolution Notes:
- If the specified polling organizations (Pew, Gallup) cease to exist before the threshold is met, comparable academic studies from major research institutions (e.g., MIT, Stanford) or official government census data will be used.
- If no definitive public polling data is available in the final years leading up to 2100, the market may be resolved using the best available historical data and a consensus poll of platform users at that time.