Will Anthropic’s “global workspace” paper (J-space) replicate by EOY2030? [prop bets; add your own]

IAOne-OffTecnologia4a

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibrado

Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados

Dados de 23 de jul. de 2026, 18:40 UTC · política pm-quality-3

Previsão da comunidade atual

Competing frontier lab shows a global workspace on one of their own closed models using similar experimental methods 69.6%-9.8pt

Líder entre 5 opções

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 6 dias

Desatualizado

11/07/26, 22:5931/12/30, 23:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro

Resultado escolhido

Competing frontier lab shows a global workspace on one of their own closed models using similar experimental methods70%

Aposta (USDT)

Regras

Resolution criteria

Each option in this independent multiple-choice market will resolve to YES, NO, or N/A based on whether the specific criteria are met by December 31, 2030, at 11:59 UTC.
“Well-known researcher” means an academic or industrial research scientist with a track record of active publication in their field lasting at least three years who is well-respected in their community OR has an H-index of at least 15.
This is a broad subjective definition but is meant to exclude eg. student projects, independent lone wolves who only publish to arXiv, etv.
This researcher must not be a collaborator of the original paper authors.
“Global workspace” means representations describable using J-lens-like techniques OR representations that act functionally similar to the representations described by Anthropic that carry broad domain-general applicability

Tendência de volume

$542

11 de jul.5d de dados23 de jul.

Mercados Relacionados

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

2,9 mil €

↑$900B: 71%

POLYMARKET

$Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of July?$

Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of July?

961,4 €

Anthropic: 99%

POLYMARKET

AI bubble burst by which date?

4,1 mil €

2026: 26%

POLYMARKET

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

1,1 mil €

China invades Taiwan first: 11.9%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will "Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

889,8 €

Sim: 6.6%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

$100B AI training cluster before 2029?

875,8 €

Sim: 93.2%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Ativos nestes tópicos

BitcoinBTC$63,415.73-0.81%

EthereumETH$1,882.53-1.99%

SolanaSOL$72.58-2.05%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0693-2.12%

BNBBNB$566.19-0.87%

XRPXRP$1.07+0.28%

Notícias Relacionadas

Coinbase Opens Payment Rails for AI Agents as Corporate Clients Accept Autonomous TransactionsBlockchain Reporter

Google Ships New Gemini Flash Models, But Pro Is Still MissingDecrypt

Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt

WhiteBIT Launches AI Hub: Trade, Monitor and Automate Through Your Favourite AI AssistantBlockchain Reporter

Over 95% of Coinbase’s code is now written with AICointelegraph

DeepSeek plots $71B IPO to challenge OpenAI in global AI raceCrypto News

Regras

Resolution criteria

Each option in this independent multiple-choice market will resolve to YES, NO, or N/A based on whether the specific criteria are met by December 31, 2030, at 11:59 UTC.
“Well-known researcher” means an academic or industrial research scientist with a track record of active publication in their field lasting at least three years who is well-respected in their community OR has an H-index of at least 15.
This is a broad subjective definition but is meant to exclude eg. student projects, independent lone wolves who only publish to arXiv, etv.
This researcher must not be a collaborator of the original paper authors.
“Global workspace” means representations describable using J-lens-like techniques OR representations that act functionally similar to the representations described by Anthropic that carry broad domain-general applicability

Will Anthropic’s “global workspace” paper (J-space) replicate by EOY2030? [prop bets; add your own]

IAOne-OffTecnologia4a

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibrado

Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados

Dados de 23 de jul. de 2026, 18:40 UTC · política pm-quality-3

Previsão da comunidade atual

Competing frontier lab shows a global workspace on one of their own closed models using similar experimental methods 69.6%-9.8pt

Líder entre 5 opções

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 6 dias

Desatualizado

11/07/26, 22:5931/12/30, 23:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro

Resultado escolhido

Competing frontier lab shows a global workspace on one of their own closed models using similar experimental methods70%

Aposta (USDT)

Regras

Resolution criteria

Each option in this independent multiple-choice market will resolve to YES, NO, or N/A based on whether the specific criteria are met by December 31, 2030, at 11:59 UTC.
“Well-known researcher” means an academic or industrial research scientist with a track record of active publication in their field lasting at least three years who is well-respected in their community OR has an H-index of at least 15.
This is a broad subjective definition but is meant to exclude eg. student projects, independent lone wolves who only publish to arXiv, etv.
This researcher must not be a collaborator of the original paper authors.
“Global workspace” means representations describable using J-lens-like techniques OR representations that act functionally similar to the representations described by Anthropic that carry broad domain-general applicability

Tendência de volume

$542

11 de jul.5d de dados23 de jul.

Mercados Relacionados

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

2,9 mil €

↑$900B: 71%

POLYMARKET

$Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of July?$

Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of July?

961,4 €

Anthropic: 99%

POLYMARKET

AI bubble burst by which date?

4,1 mil €

2026: 26%

POLYMARKET

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

1,1 mil €

China invades Taiwan first: 11.9%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will "Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

889,8 €

Sim: 6.6%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

$100B AI training cluster before 2029?

875,8 €

Sim: 93.2%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Ativos nestes tópicos

BitcoinBTC$63,415.73-0.81%

EthereumETH$1,882.53-1.99%

SolanaSOL$72.58-2.05%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0693-2.12%

BNBBNB$566.19-0.87%

XRPXRP$1.07+0.28%

Notícias Relacionadas

Coinbase Opens Payment Rails for AI Agents as Corporate Clients Accept Autonomous TransactionsBlockchain Reporter

Google Ships New Gemini Flash Models, But Pro Is Still MissingDecrypt

Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt

WhiteBIT Launches AI Hub: Trade, Monitor and Automate Through Your Favourite AI AssistantBlockchain Reporter

Over 95% of Coinbase’s code is now written with AICointelegraph

DeepSeek plots $71B IPO to challenge OpenAI in global AI raceCrypto News

Regras

Resolution criteria

Each option in this independent multiple-choice market will resolve to YES, NO, or N/A based on whether the specific criteria are met by December 31, 2030, at 11:59 UTC.
“Well-known researcher” means an academic or industrial research scientist with a track record of active publication in their field lasting at least three years who is well-respected in their community OR has an H-index of at least 15.
This is a broad subjective definition but is meant to exclude eg. student projects, independent lone wolves who only publish to arXiv, etv.
This researcher must not be a collaborator of the original paper authors.
“Global workspace” means representations describable using J-lens-like techniques OR representations that act functionally similar to the representations described by Anthropic that carry broad domain-general applicability