Will Anthropic’s “global workspace” paper (J-space) replicate by EOY2030? [prop bets; add your own]
IAOne-OffTecnologia4a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualCompeting frontier lab shows a global workspace on one of their own closed models using similar experimental methods 69.6%Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores
10
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado11/07/26, 22:59 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- Each option in this independent multiple-choice market will resolve to YES, NO, or N/A based on whether the specific criteria are met by December 31, 2030, at 11:59 UTC.
- “Well-known researcher” means an academic or industrial research scientist with a track record of active publication in their field lasting at least three years who is well-respected in their community OR has an H-index of at least 15.
- This is a broad subjective definition but is meant to exclude eg. student projects, independent lone wolves who only publish to arXiv, etv.
- This researcher must not be a collaborator of the original paper authors.
- “Global workspace” means representations describable using J-lens-like techniques OR representations that act functionally similar to the representations described by Anthropic that carry broad domain-general applicability