Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)
IA4a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
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multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Desatualizado14/05/24, 02:57 UTC1/01/31, 07:59 UTC
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To qualify, a person must be well known before making claims about AI personhood (e.g. Blake Lemoine doesn't count).
- The figure must be prominent in the English-speaking world (i.e. all the criteria are English specific).
- The figure must also:
- Have a Wikipedia page
- Have at least 5 news articles centrally mentioning the person from different large media platforms such as the NYT, BBC, Fox News, etc. from before they made claims about AI personhood
- Have a (verified) social media account with 100k+ followers, a TED talk, a prominent role in a film, or a book
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)?
- A Manifold Markets cota Other em 63% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own) é resolvido?
- Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own) deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2031.
- Como Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own) é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: To qualify, a person must be well known before making claims about AI personhood (e.g. Blake Lemoine doesn't count).