Will "Anthropic: "Statement from Dario Amodei on ou..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
GeopolíticaOne-OffIA1a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 86%
Previsores
4
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado27/02/26, 08:35 UTC1/02/28, 00:00 UTC
Tendências
Regras
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Anthropic: "Statement from Dario Amodei on our discussions with the Department of War" is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
