Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 60.5%
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32
Tipo de pergunta
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado24/06/24, 22:43 UTC1/01/27, 07:59 UTC
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KalshiRegras
This question resolves YES if an AI system is known (because of good evidence) to have autonomously taken concrete steps to resist being shut down in the real world before the end of 2026.
- Otherwise resolves NO on 1 Jan 2027.
- I will resolve this question using my best judgement.
- Resolves using the same considerations as the 2024 version of this question found here:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-an-ai-system-be-known-to-have-vb89s8zaok)Credit to @PeterWildeford for coming up with this question originally.
- See also the 2025 version:
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
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- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
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- € 9,1 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 61% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026? é resolvido?
- Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This question resolves YES if an AI system is known (because of good evidence) to have autonomously taken concrete steps to resist being shut down in the real world before the end of 2026.