Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualAnthropic 39.8%Líder entre 6 opções
Previsores
91
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado30/07/23, 20:54 UTC31/12/26, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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To determine the winner, we will rate the best AI system from each company based on their performance in four areas:
- General knowledge test
- These AI models can be multimodal but won't be rated on tasks involving images, sounds, or other non-textual data (e.g. the models won't be evaluated based on their ability to intelligently reason from/generate images, sounds, or other non-textual data).
- It can be a single interface system with multiple underlying models fine-tuned on different tasks.
- The said AI system can reason before providing an answer.
- The language of the tests is mainly English.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 135,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 102,7 mil
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 325 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
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- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026?
- A Manifold Markets cota Anthropic em 40% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026 é resolvido?
- The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026 deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026 é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: To determine the winner, we will rate the best AI system from each company based on their performance in four areas: