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Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado23/09/24, 08:41 UTC2/01/29, 07:59 UTC
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This question resolves yes if there is credible reporting of an incident of sabotage, between September 2024 and December 2028 inclusive, of a datacenter used for AI training or inference in the US (or dedicated power infrastructure for such a datacenter) resulting in either $100M+ in physical damages to the datacenter (and/or its dedicated power infrastructure), or a 2+ month delay in the facility's effective use of at least 50,000 H100 (or better) GPUs.
- In particular, for an incident to count as sabotage, the following must be widely believed:
- The incident was the result of a premeditated, malicious action by some party, rather than an accident.
- Damaging AI-relevant infrastructure was a primary motivation of the incident, such that the damage to AI-relevant infrastructure appeared to be targeted rather than incidental.
- For example, large-scale attacks on critical infrastructure wouldn't count if there is scant evidence that the responsible party was not primarily interested in damaging AI-relevant infrastructure.
- To determine whether this condition is met, I'll gauge the extent to which reporting characterizes AI-relevant infrastructure as the target of such an attack.
Mercados abertos
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will an AI datacenter in the US be sabotaged before 2029??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 64% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will an AI datacenter in the US be sabotaged before 2029? é resolvido?
- Will an AI datacenter in the US be sabotaged before 2029? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2029.
- Como Will an AI datacenter in the US be sabotaged before 2029? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This question resolves yes if there is credible reporting of an incident of sabotage, between September 2024 and December 2028 inclusive, of a datacenter used for AI training or inference in the US (or dedicated power infrastructure for such a datacenter) resulting in either $100M+ in physical damages to the datacenter (and/or its dedicated power infrastructure), or a 2+ month delay in the facility's effective use of at least 50,000 H100 (or better) GPUs.