Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029
IAOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 84%
Previsores
4
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 minutos
23/12/25, 20:21 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI agent be directly convicted of a crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI Agent end of October?
PolymarketWhen will OpenAI release a personal AI agent?
KalshiThird-best AI Agent Lab end of November?
PolymarketThird-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
PolymarketRegras
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if, by December 2029, an agentic AI system autonomously performs an academically rigorous analysis of LHC particle physics data that passes peer review by experimental particle physicists.
- Given ~100 PB of LHC pre-reconstruction data and a prompt like "measure the Standard Model Higgs mass" or "evaluate this Beyond the Standard Model scenario," the agent must autonomously:
- Plan and execute the full analysis chain
- Perform low-level preprocessing/reconstruction on distributed computing
- Design analysis strategy (triggers, event selection, object definitions)