Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 77.1%
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6
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado19/01/24, 04:14 UTC2/01/30, 06:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegras
Resolve to YES if by Jan. 1, 2030, any journal with the Science or Nature family of journals announces or implements a policy in which LLMs (or another type of AI model) are used to provide peer-review feedback to authors.
- The LLM must provide feedback to >50% of reviewed papers (though human peer-review could still happen alongside the LLM).
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
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- € 135,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 102,7 mil
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- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
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- € 9,1 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
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- 1480+-2.5pt66%
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- 1500+-3.0pt23%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 77% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030? é resolvido?
- Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2030.
- Como Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolve to YES if by Jan. 1, 2030, any journal with the Science or Nature family of journals announces or implements a policy in which LLMs (or another type of AI model) are used to provide peer-review feedback to authors.