Will "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
IAOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 89.8%
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Desatualizado15/06/26, 03:37 UTC1/02/28, 00:00 UTC
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As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post American Government Takes Down Claude Fable is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Mercados abertos
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- 2027+12.5pt89%
- 2026+23.0pt71%
- September 30, 2026+24.5pt43%
- Volume total
- € 125,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 55 mil
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture+8.0pt42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer-1.0pt25.7%
- Yang-Mills+13.6pt14.3%
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- 2027+33.0pt90%
- 2026+21.5pt50%
- September 30, 2026+20.5pt34%
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- 2028-23.0pt38%
- 2027-1.0pt17%
- 2026-2.0pt5%
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt62.8%
- ChatGPT-0.6pt20.6%
- Gemini-0.9pt6.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,3 mi
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,4 mi
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 90% em 11 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? é resolvido?
- Will "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de fevereiro de 2028.
- Como Will "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.