Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 83.8%
Previsores
36
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado14/08/23, 20:31 UTC1/01/30, 05:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI wipe humanity by 2030?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRegras
Resolves YES if an AI participates in a competition primarily involving wiping such as a window-wiping or mopping competition, and beats all human opponents.
- There must be at least one human opponent for it to count.
- The competition must have some degree of officialness to it, like an organization putting on the competition. "I held a competition in my basement, and the AI won" doesn't count.
- I will use my best judgement to determine if a competition is "official" (I may make the criteria for officialness more precise based on suggestions in the comments).
- If I can't find any example of an AI winning a competition like this by 2030, resolves NO.
- If an AI has already won a competition like this, that counts for a YES resolution, too.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
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- Volume 24h
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
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- December 15,86%
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- € 2,3 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
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- € 344,9 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
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- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
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- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 84% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030? é resolvido?
- Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2030.
- Como Will AI out-wipe humanity by 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves YES if an AI participates in a competition primarily involving wiping such as a window-wiping or mopping competition, and beats all human opponents.