Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 95.4%
Previsores
43
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado19/06/23, 15:47 UTC2/01/30, 04:59 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
This is an intentional duplicate of https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8 .
- It should resolve the same in all states of the world.
- In other words, any price discrepancy is intended to be an arbitrage opportunity.
- It is meant to highlight the absurdity of the position, and make whatever AI risk messaging is happening more expensive.
- [link preview]
Mercados abertos
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- € 224,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 160,5 mil
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 344,9 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 95% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? é resolvido?
- Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2030.
- Como Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This is an intentional duplicate of https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8 .