Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 86.8%
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21
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 minutos
24/02/26, 14:28 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
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This market resolves YES if the following statement is true:
- For a typical nontrivial open mathematical conjecture stated within the standard axioms of mathematics, the probability that a publicly available AI system solves the conjecture autonomously within a fixed time horizon is greater than the probability that a human mathematician solves it within the same time horizon without assistance from AI.
- Resolution will be based on my judgment.
- I am a PhD student in mathematics.
- I will not place any bets in this market, as the resolution depends on my own judgment.
- Clarifications
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- € 224,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 160,5 mil
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 344,9 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 mais resultados
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- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 87% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030? é resolvido?
- Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2030.
- Como Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market resolves YES if the following statement is true: