Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 94.2%
Previsores
23
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado10/09/24, 05:42 UTC17/09/29, 20:59 UTC
Tendências
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PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegras
Center for AI Safety announced a forecasting AI that allegedly outperforms Metaculus.
- However, Oliver Habryka and Gwern raised concerns about data contamination.
- If a reliable (according to me) test is performed, will FiveThirtyNine be found to outperform Metaculus?
- If all concerns with the current test will be convincingly debunked, the market will resolve YES.
- If a new test will involve Metaculus forecasts that contain similar AI in the aggregate, it will not be sufficient for a NO resolution.
- If no such test is performed by closing date, it will resolve MKT.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- € 224,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 160,5 mil
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 344,9 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Is FiveThirtyNine AI better than Metaculus??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 94% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Is FiveThirtyNine AI better than Metaculus? é resolvido?
- Is FiveThirtyNine AI better than Metaculus? deverá ser resolvido em 17 de setembro de 2029.
- Como Is FiveThirtyNine AI better than Metaculus? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Center for AI Safety announced a forecasting AI that allegedly outperforms Metaculus.