Will a US House seat flip from Republican to Democrat in a 2027 special election?
One-OffPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoPolítica1a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 72.7%
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Atualizado há 8 minutos
21/10/26, 05:42 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
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This market resolves YES if a special election for a US House seat is completed in 2027 and the winner is a Democrat, where the seat's vacating member was a Republican (see definitions).
- When an election counts as "in 2027":
- - The election that actually fills the seat must take place between January 1 and December 31, 2027 (inclusive).
- - This can be a special general election, a runoff, or a special primary or all-party first round in which one candidate wins outright by majority and so fills the seat.
- - A special election whose primary or first round is in 2027 but which needs a general election or runoff in 2028 does not count.
- - The vacancy may have arisen at any time, including before 2027.
