Will a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived

Perguntas frequentes

Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived?

A Manifold Markets cota No em 83% em 19 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Will a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived é resolvido?

Will a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived deverá ser resolvido em 11 de dezembro de 2040.

Como Will a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived é liquidado?

A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: AGI will be taken from Manifold AI’s definition.

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 202924%
• 2028-2.0pt17%
• 202710%

Volume total

€ 1,8 mi

Volume 24h

€ 206,1 mil

KALSHI

DeepSeek market share this week

• Above 22.7%98.5%
• Above 23.8%96.5%
• Above 24.6%93%

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+5.9pt52.4%
• Gemini-0.2pt37.5%
• ChatGPT-1.7pt

POLYMARKET

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?

• December 31-0.1pt98%
• October 31-10.6pt75%
• October 24-38.0pt41%

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KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt85.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202783%
• Before Jan 1, 202773%

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+4.0pt78%
• December 15,+5.0pt76%
• November 30,-1.5pt65%

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