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  • Início
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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. Geopolítica
  3. Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
Manifold Markets

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

One-OffGeopolíticaMiddle East6m
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSem KYC
Previsão da comunidade atual
Manifold Markets
Sim 1.2%
Previsores

27

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 7 dias

Desatualizado
22/03/26, 1:1231/12/26, 23:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Yes1%

Regras

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves YES if a ballistic missile or cruise missile launched from Iranian territory strikes London (or its metropolitan area) by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
  • Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) confirming a direct hit on London.
  • The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.
  • Iran fired missiles towards the UK-US base on Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Islands, which is about 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran about the same distance from Iran to London.
  • Iran's missile range reaches the capitals of Europe — Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range.

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Ativos nestes tópicos

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Notícias Relacionadas

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Regras

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market resolves YES if a ballistic missile or cruise missile launched from Iranian territory strikes London (or its metropolitan area) by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
  • Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) confirming a direct hit on London.
  • The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.
  • Iran fired missiles towards the UK-US base on Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Islands, which is about 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran about the same distance from Iran to London.
  • Iran's missile range reaches the capitals of Europe — Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range.