Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
One-OffGeopolíticaMiddle East3mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 99%
Previsores
40
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 19 horas
Desatualizado22/03/26, 01:12 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill SUI and APTOS blockchains merge into a single network by December 31st, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Grand Theft Auto 6 release be delayed until December 1st 2026 or later?
Manifold MarketsChina ballistic missile launch by December 31?
PolymarketNumber of North Korea Missile Tests in September 2026?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a ballistic missile or cruise missile launched from Iranian territory strikes London (or its metropolitan area) by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) confirming a direct hit on London.
- The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.
- Iran fired missiles towards the UK-US base on Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Islands, which is about 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran about the same distance from Iran to London.
- Iran's missile range reaches the capitals of Europe — Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range.
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.1pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.4pt3%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 22,4 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 643,2 mil
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-8.0pt72%
- September 18-7.5pt68%
- September 11-10.5pt60%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.6%
- September 30-3.5pt12.2%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+5.0pt81%
- Yes-5.0pt19%
- Volume total
- € 9,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 261 mil
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.2pt1%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 mais resultados
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 99% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026? é resolvido?
- Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria