Will "6 reasons why “alignment-is-hard” discourse s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
One-OffIA4mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 80.1%
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Desatualizado4/12/25, 02:12 UTC1/02/27, 00:00 UTC
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KalshiRegras
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post 6 reasons why “alignment-is-hard” discourse seems alien to human intuitions, and vice-versa is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-3.5pt84.6%
- Moonshot+4.7pt10.6%
- Z.ai+0.3pt1.9%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 410,1 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 56,4 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.4pt70%
- ChatGPT-0.8pt15%
- Gemini+0.1pt7%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,7 mi
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt87%
- December 15,+1.0pt84%
- November 30,+6.0pt79%
+7 mais resultados
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%91%
- Above 4.5%+19.0pt41%
- Above 5.6%+10.0pt20%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 58,4 mil
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 22.7%99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 23.6%-1.0pt95%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 70 mil
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 mais resultados
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI this week
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- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
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- Best AI in Sep 2026?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will "6 reasons why “alignment-is-hard” discourse s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 80% em 17 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will "6 reasons why “alignment-is-hard” discourse s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? é resolvido?
- Will "6 reasons why “alignment-is-hard” discourse s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de fevereiro de 2027.
- Como Will "6 reasons why “alignment-is-hard” discourse s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.