Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualDemocrats 60.3%Líder entre 14 opções
Previsores
40
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado12/06/25, 12:47 UTC6/11/28, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the party that wins the 2024 US presidential election win the 2028 presidential election
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2028 US Presidential election?
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PolymarketRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the political party of the candidate who wins the 2028 United States presidential election, scheduled for November 7, 2028.
- The winning party will be determined based on the candidate who secures the majority of electoral votes as reported by reputable sources such as the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and major news outlets like The New York Times and CNN.
- The 2028 U.S. presidential election will determine the nation's leadership for the subsequent four years.
- As of June 2025, several potential candidates from both major parties are being discussed:
- Republican Party: Vice President JD Vance is considered a frontrunner, with a 25% chance of winning the 2028 presidential race, according to SportsBettingDime.
Comparação de fontes de previsão
- Também disponível em ForecastEx — Will a Republican win the US Presidential Election in 2028? · No 56%
- Também disponível em Limitless — Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? · Democratic 65%
- Também disponível em Manifold Markets — Which party will win the 2028 US Presidential election? · Democratic Party 61%
- Também disponível em Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 US Presidential Election: Winning Party · Democrat 57%
- Também disponível em Polymarket — Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? · Democratic 66%
- Também disponível em PredictIt — Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election? · Democratic 58%
- Também disponível em Kalshi — 2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party) · Democratic party 59%
Mercados abertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-8.0pt69.3%
- Yes+8.0pt30.7%
- Volume total
- € 14,1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 831,2 mil
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.8%
- Gavin Newsom13.7%
+45 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 187,8 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 495,4 mil
KALSHIWhat will Trump say this week?
- Bibi / Netanyahu+83.0pt99%
- Ukraine+44.0pt99%
- Kamala99%
+31 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 864,2 mil
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027+17.0pt61%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+16.0pt60%
- Before Apr 1, 2027+15.0pt48%
+7 mais resultados
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027-1.0pt13%
- December7%
- September 30,-0.2pt1%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.2pt35.7%
- Édouard Philippe-1.0pt27.6%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.2%
+38 mais resultados
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- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election??
- A Manifold Markets cota Democrats em 60% em 14 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election? é resolvido?
- Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election? deverá ser resolvido em 6 de novembro de 2028.
- Como Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria
- Onde mais Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election? está listado?
- A mesma pergunta também está listada em ForecastEx, Limitless, Manifold Markets, Robinhood (Rothera), Polymarket, PredictIt, Kalshi.